As the most recent weather model data pours in, it appears that the "colder scenario" described in the last post is playing out. The center of the low pressure system has moved further to the east, allowing for colder air to remain over the Holland Patent area. It is important to note that "coldER" does not mean that this will be an all-snow event. Temperatures will be close to freezing during the pre-dawn hours, and will eventually rise above freezing as the morning goes on, before the storm moves out of the area by noon on Tuesday. It is because of this that our chances for a closing remain very low. While the timing hasn't changed (the heaviest precipitation still looks to fall between 3 AM and 6 AM), there remains a fair degree of uncertainty as to when snow will turn to rain. Models indicate this changeover happening anywhere from 6 AM to 9 AM. This makes all the difference in terms of a delay. If the changeover occurs around 6 AM, road conditions will not warrant a delay, however, if the snow is able to hang on until 9 AM, road conditions (especially the back roads that are not treated with salt) will likely be messy enough to invoke a delay.
Click here to view my latest odds for a delay on Tuesday.
What the Data is Saying
Below are several of the latest model projections for the total snowfall of this system. The number in the gray bar is the model's projection for the village of Holland Patent. Amounts range from 3" to 6".
Below are the latest model projections for temperatures at 6AM. Again, the number in the gray bar is the model's projection for the village of Holland Patent. Models are in good agreement that the temperature will be right around the freezing mark by 6 AM.
Finally, below are the model projections for the timing of this storm. I chose the two models that have historically been the most accurate with these type of events. For laptop or desktop viewers, the top row is the NAM Model, which is forecasting a snowier scenario (5") and the bottom row is the GFS Model, which only projects 3" for the Holland Patent area. The left column is what each model is projecting for 3 AM, the center column is for 6 AM, and the right column is for 9 AM. For mobile viewers, the top 3 images are the NAM model, the first at 3 AM, the second at 6 AM, and the third at 9 AM. The fourth image is the GFS Model at 3 AM, the fifth image is the GFS at 6 AM, and the sixth is the GFS at 9 AM. Blue is snow, green is rain, and pink is a mix. The darker the color, the heavier the model projects the precipitation to be. For reference, Holland Patent is just to left of the "C" made by the county borderline in the middle of each image.