After having a snowpack on the ground for over a month (since November 14th), the Holland Patent area will lose it all on Friday, December 19th. With Christmas approaching, the timing could not be more inappropriate. The culprit behind this is a large rain storm tracking through the middle of the country, bringing upwards of a half inch of rain for Central New York, and sending highs close to 50ºF on Friday. This will make for wet road conditions across the entire Northeast, impacting holiday travel for Friday.
The system departs the region Friday evening. Saturday and Sunday both look like quiet days. Sunday night is when thing begin to look up for those of us wishing for some snow by Christmas Morning. A weak snow storm will overspread Central New York, dropping 1"-2" of snow. We will continue to see chances for snow on Monday, as lake effect snow sets up over Central New York. Much like the snow that will precede it, the lake effect does not look all that impressive with respect to its strength. Most models only project it to drop an additional 1"-3" on the area. Still, however, that would give us enough snow to meet the technical definition of a White Christmas, as defined by the National Weather Service: 1" of snow on the ground by Christmas Morning. Below are some model projections for the amount of snow from Sunday through Christmas Morning. The number in the grey rectangle is the snowfall projection for Holland Patent.
As we can see, the models are in reasonably good agreement that we'll have a White Christmas. Hence, my initial projection is a 3 in 4, or 75% chance that we'll see a White Christmas. Because we will not have any snow going into Sunday, if the models change the track of the weak snow storm, and subsequent lake effect snows, we're out of luck. Fingers crossed that the forecast holds. Check out my latest 2018 White Christmas Forecast on the site's homepage!
P.S. This could the first year in nearly half a century that we'll have had more snow on Thanksgiving than we will have had on Christmas. Holland Patent had 3.5" of snow on Thanksgiving, 2018.